“Technology empowers individuals and companies. As jobs and industries disappear new ones are created, and this has always been the case. However, over the past 50 years the pace has accelerated from ‘seemingly steady’ to ‘a continuum of change’. Just consider how social networking has revolutionized the way we work, access information, find resources and solve problems. And think on to the needs of an ageing population, tele-care, remote medicine and networks for the lonely.
The old copper based technologies will not see the internet scale functionally, ecologically or economically to seven billion people and 50 billion (or more) things online - but optical fibre-fed Clouds can. And probably our most pressing need is the limited human capacity to understand complexity and non-linearity. Whilst our fundamental abilities are limited in this regard, with the assistance of Artificial Intelligence we can solve the key and most pressing social, economic and ecological problems before us.”
Engineering for the future
“Of course, to access and exploit the new tools of understanding and decision support we need connectivity and bandwidth. However, in the UK and most of Europe, today’s ‘super fast’mobile and broadband infrastructure is, in fact, ‘super slow’ and asymmetric. 30Mbit/s down and 5Mbit/s up using ancient copper just isn’t enough. Cloud computing, networked collaboration, smart cities, mobile workforces and data sharing/analysis are disabled by such a limited capabilities.
When I visit more progressive places, such as Hong Kong, the Island of Jersey, and parts of Lancashire, I have access to 1Gb/s both ways, and cloud computing really works. The implications are profound. The UK used to be a world leader in the computer games and simulation business but we lost out to the Far East. The UK will be precluded from participating in even more exciting new businesses if we continue to engineer for the past. Make no bones about it are looking at long-term stagnation. In effect we will be basket weaving whilst others are using nano-tech, biotech, Artificial Intelligence, and shipping bits and not atoms!
“So what can areas without high-speed broadband do? If network companies won’t supply us, we have to go with ‘Do It Yourself’. And in this regard the countryside is starting to lead the charge. Farming is a hi-tech business and many small companies have decamped from the cities to the small towns and villages where community broadband schemes are alive and well, supported by new fibre and wireless-based providers.”
“South-East Asia has been roaring ahead with Gb/s services to home and office, whilst the rest of the world continues to invest in the old and future crippling copper infrastructure and asymmetric service provision. In South-East Asia, 100Mb/s WiFi and fast 4G services are common, while everywhere else mobile bit rates are far slower. The transformation of industries, working practices and societal modernisation hinges on connectivity and bandwidth. Hot spots in the northern hemisphere include Scandinavia, the Netherlands, UK and Jersey with Gb/s FTTH services, plus a growing number of rural communities bypassing incumbent providers with DIY FTTH projects. TV and entertainment are also poised to go off air and onto FTTH-based services.”
New models for industry and society
“Our future, and that of the planet, lies in the hands of new technologies and new models for industry and society. We can’t achieve sustainable economies if we stick with old technologies and old industry models. Solving this problem requires us to make big changes. A lack of bandwidth and connectivity are presenting the ultimate roadblock to our progress and there is widespread frustration in industry, education, healthcare and in the home.”
“There are several reasons that the roll-out of FTTH is taking place so slowly, including vested interests, outdated business models and a lack of real understanding or the will to change. But the economic case for fibre really doesn’t require further proof. No one is seeing or forecasting a downturn in net traffic and the rise of wireless devices means more optical fibre everywhere. Some think that 5G mobile is the big fix and wireless can do it all. However, that would require increasing tower density by 10 times, which is impracticable. The reality is that micro cells on the end of optical fibre in as many homes and offices as possible is the only viable solution. I hope telcos soon wake up, smell the coffee, and see that they have wasted billions on copper that could have been spent on fibre!”
Peter Cochrane OBE has over 40 years of experience in the creation and deployment of new technologies and starting of new businesses. He has been a planning and R&D engineer, Head of Research and CTO at BT and responsible for developments that eventually led to IP, eCommerce, eRetail and eLogistics. He now runs his own consultancy company, invests in start-ups, acts as an advisor to industry and governments and was an FTTH Council Conference Keynote Speaker.
“The world of ‘simple’ is long gone, and ‘knee jerk decisions’ are now dangerous”
“We have BIG DATA, but what we need is BIG UNDERSTANDING”